From the book Neapolitan, Richard E. (1990) Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems: Theory and Algorithms, John Wiley & Sons, New York, p. 259. Started as problem 5.5.2, p.183, it becomes example 7.5, p. 261 (with diagram on p. 259), and continues numerically on p. 279. Originally based on the Lauritzen & Spiegelhalter 1988 paper.

BN link: <www.norsys.com...>