The BNMA BN Repository

There are two book bags each containing 10 poker chips. In one bag there are 7 red and 3 blue. In the other bag there are 3 red and 7 blue. Five chips are drawn out of one of the bags and shown to the subject (one at a time then returned to the bag). The subject does not know which bag the chips came from. There is an equal chance that the draws are made from either bag. After each draw the subject reports which bag he believes the chips are coming from and provides a probability that the chips are being drawn from that bag.

The problem comes from the early "revision of judgment" work that indicated that people were conservative with respect to Bayes.

The Bayesian Poker Player (BPP) began life as an honours project at Monash in 1993. Since then several honours students have worked on various aspects of the project and some of the work has been written up as research publications. BPP was originally developed to play 5-card stud poker, using Bayesian network technology. In 2006, BPP was converted to play Texas Hold'em Poker, the main online form of poker, and re-written in Python. We have developed a simple GUI interface that allows people to play against BPP online, which is hosted here: <bayesian-intelligence.com...>. This is an ongoing project in which there are still many options for making BPP a better poker player including improving its bluffing strategies and its opponent modelling.

This BN is an example of dynamic Bayesian network which includes feedback loops. The feedback loop represents the commonly accepted feedback relationship between socioeconomic status and education.

The Decision Graph is applied for the assessment and optimization of an existing threshold-based debris flow warning system. To model the warning system and compute the technical and inherent reliability, the Bayesian Network, which is the Decision Graph without the utility node, can be applied alone. Paper: <www.era.bgu.tum.de...>.