Webinars & Events

ABNMS is excited to announce its upcoming series of webinars!

You can find further details on each of our upcoming and recent webinars below. Please note: recordings of webinars will be made available on YouTube after the sessions.

Wednesday 27th July 2022 12:00pm-12:30pm
Informing koala conservation for recovery of NSW koala populations, based on what the experts think
Emma Camus, Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER)

Koala conservation in NSW is complicated, and despite the popularity of the species, we are still don't have all the data we need to make a fully-informed choice on which actions we should prioritise. Luckily, there are some amazing experts in this area, with a wealth of knowledge and experience that they are willing to share. In this talk, UQ Graduate Emma Camus will explain how she used object-orientated continuous BNs to formalise expert knowledge on NSW koala management to create a practical decision support tool. Using this tool, we can run various management scenarios for the different regional landscapes within NSW, and show how a one-size-fits-all approach would have winners and losers across the different regions.

Emma is a Research Officer at Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER), where she designs, prepares, and conducts training in sampling for national and international research activities. Before working with ACER, Emma worked with Brisbane City Council to investigate the habitat of significant species in the Brisbane region. She graduated with honours from University of Queensland with a Bachelor of Environmental Management, majoring in Natural Systems and Wildlife.

Wednesday 8th June 2022 12:00pm-12:30pm
Automated eruption forecasting at frequently active volcanoes: application to Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa, New Zealand
Dr Yannik Behr, GNS Science, New Zealand

As societies live and play closer to volcanoes there is a growing requirement for volcano monitoring agencies to provide quantitative information on the likelihood and impact of volcanic hazards that can be understood and utilized by landowners and managers, infrastructure managers, civil/federal aviation authorities, local people, and tourists. In addition, national health and safety legislation increasingly requires dynamic assessment of risk for employees, their subcontractors, and communication of the changing risk to other potentially affected parties. Eruption forecasting underpins such quantitative information and risk assessments.

Operational Scientist Yannik Behr will be telling us all about a Bayesian Network model to forecast the probability of eruption for Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa New Zealand in collaboration with the New Zealand volcano monitoring group (VMG). Since 2014 the VMG has regularly estimated volcanic eruptions at Mt Ruapehu that impact beyond the crater rim. The Bayesian Network model structure was built with expert judgement based on the conceptual understanding of Mt Ruapehu and with a focus on making use of the long eruption catalogue and the long-term monitoring data. The model parameterisation was partly done by data learning, complemented by expert elicitation and is now implemented as a service to automatically calculate daily forecast updates.

Wednesday 27th April 2022 12:00pm-12:30pm
Meet the team behind the CoRiCal COVID-19 vaccine risk-benefit calculator
CoRiCal team

The CoRiCal risk-benefit calculator (https://corical.immunisationcoalition.org.au/) has proven a popular tool for helping people making informed decisions about COVID-19 vaccinations. But did you know that it's hiding a Bayesian Network behind those charts? Our April ABNMS webinar will introduce you to the team behind CoRiCal and explain what it takes to use a Bayesian Network to turn journal articles and Government reports into a useful online decision support tool. We'll discuss the whole process, from model design and validation and finding the data, all the way up to risk communication and the logistics of getting it online.

Wednesday 6th October 2021 12:00pm-12:30pm
No Data - No Problem: Versatility of BNs in different data landscapes
Dr Helen Mayfield, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland

While some projects are lucky enough to have a large dataset to work from, in many cases the reason a problem exists in the first place is because data is spread over different sources, in different formats, or exists only as expert knowledge. Bayesian networks (BNs) are your friend no matter which category you fall into.

In this webinar, Dr Helen Mayfield will go through some examples from Epidemiology in Fiji, policy design for the Great Barrier Reef, and making an informed choice on the COVID-19 Astra Zeneca vaccine to show how BNs can be used in decision support regardless of whether you have all the data, none of the data, or something in between.

Thursday 2nd September 2021 12:00pm-12:30pm
The Many Faces of Probability!
Dr Bruce G. Marcot, PhD, Research Wildlife Biologist at U.S Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, USA

This session will be delivered by Bruce G. Marcot, PhD, and will cover:

  • The nuances and the tangled knots of what constitutes probability.
  • When probability can, and cannot, be derived from frequency data.
  • All Bayesian probability is conditional.
  • Is probability absolute?
  • Is probability real?
  • A multiverse dive into the world of quantum Bayesian models -- question all you think you know!

If you want to be added to or opt out of our mailing list, please email us at contact@abnms.org.

Find out more about Bruce's research here!

Wednesday 11th August 2021 12:00pm-12:30pm
Introduction to Bayesian Network Modelling!
Dr Sandra Johnson from the Queensland University of Technology

This session is aimed at a general audience, and no previous experience in modelling or statistics is necessary. We will give you a high level introduction to Bayesian networks (BNs), answering questions such as:

  • Why should I be interested to find out about BN modelling?
  • What is a BN anyway?
  • When is this a suitable modelling approach?

The "how" will not be covered in this session, but if you are interested in learning more, look out for the follow up webinar sessions.