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Reactor
This example shows that introducing a common cause can make an important change, even if the maringal probabilities of the children remain the same.
Catastrophic failure occurs only if all 3 subsystems fail.
The probability of Catastrophic_Failure1 (with no findings) is 2.9791e-011, which may be an acceptable risk.
However, more careful modeling leads to the addition of the Incorrect_Test_Procedure node. With only this change, the failure probability jumps to 0.003%, which is unacceptable.
Notice that the failure probability of the subsystems remains 0.031% in both cases, and the CPT of Catastrophic_Failure remains unchanged.
BN link: <www.norsys.com...>
Bayesian Intelligence